As climate models forecast one that might begin as early as June.
In its advisory last Wednesday, April 22, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) shared an observation that it found using climate models.
Despite the continued prevailing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Neutral over the Tropical Pacific, these climate models, combined with expert judgements, suggest that there is a 79% chance of El Niño emerging in June-July-August (JJA) 2026 season.
As per the state weather bureau, the El Niño is a warm phase of the ENSO and is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Philippine Sea and warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP).
As per these models, El Niño is likely to persist until early 2027 and in line with this development, the DOST-PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Alert.
Based on the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System, when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 70% or more within the next 2 to 3 months, an El Niño Alert is issued.
PAGASA said, “During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country.“
“However, above-normal rainfall conditions may also be experienced over the western section of the country during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season,” the agency also pointed out
They assured that they will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon.
PAGASA likewise encouraged all concerned government agencies and the general public to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impacts of developing El Niño.