Marking the official end of the rainy season this year.
On Monday, October 5, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration officially declared the end of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season in the Philippines.
The state weather bureau cited the “gradual shift in the prevailing weather pattern,” which it has observed over the past several days.
It also noted the strengthening high pressure system over East Asia, the southward-migrating Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the notable weakening of winds and a decrease in rainfall associated with the Southwest Monsoon as key indicators.
“Forecasts indicate that these conditions are expected to persist in the coming days. In view of this, the Habagat season has officially ended,” PAGASA furthered, station that it marks the termination of the rainy season over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.
Prior to this issuance, PAGASA advised all government agencies, climate-sensitive sectors, and the general public that a “Strong El Niño” is currently active in the Tropical Pacific.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and cooler-than-average ocean temperatures over the Philippine Sea.
According to climate models and expert evaluations, the bureau said the phenomenon is expected to intensify into a “Very Strong El Niño” phase between the September–December 2026 season and will persist through the first half of 2027.
Expected during such season are two main factors, which are dry spells and drought and the short-term heavy rainfall.
For drt spells, PAGASA warned: “Prolonged rainfall deficits increase the risk of severe agricultural dry spells and water supply stress, threatening food security, water resources, energy production, public health, and the broader economy.”
Meanwhile, as for the latter, it said that active tropical cyclones may still bring localized, above-normal rainfallg—particularly to the western section of the Philippines.
DOST Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. urged local government units and key sectors to take proactive, data-driven action well before the full impact of the climate event is felt.
“Climate information must be utilized before a crisis strikes. Adjusting farming schedules and preparing communities, infrastructure, and essential services early is vital,” he said.
He also highlighted that PAGASA has also developed localized climate projections and CliMap, which allows users to access historical data and localized projections down to the municipal level to support long-term adaptation.
