Showing higher likelihood of a “full-blown” event this year.
On Tuesday, June 9, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported its latest observations regarding the possible onset of an El Niño within the next few months.
According to the state weather bureau, “El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific.”
It noted that the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) has already reached the +0.5°C threshold.
In addition to that, most climate models are now suggesting that there is over an “80% probability” that this will eventually become a full-blown El Niño event, which will likely to persist until early 2027.
It explained, “El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and is characterized by warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and generally, cooler-than-average sea surface temperature over the Philippine Sea.”
During this weather event, there is a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across most parts of the country.
That, according to PAGASA, raises the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas.
However, it also warned that above-normal rainfall conditions may still occur, particularly over the western sections of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season — especially when it is enhanced by a tropical cyclone.
The bureau said that it will continue to monitor the El Niño condition and advised governments agencies and the general oubkic to take appropriate actions to mitigate the potential impacts.
Prior to this, PAGASA has disclosed the possibility of a “super El Niño” event, which ovcurs when the sea temperature in the tropical Pacific could increase by at least 2°C than its normal temperature.
In line with that, national government agencies, including the Department of Agriculture, have also started preparing for such scenario.
