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What could happen to Disney after its October 1 ‘D-day’ in the Philippines?

Come October 1, the Disney Channel and several more of its namesake company’s portfolio will be no more in Southeast Asia, the Philippines included.

Back in April, a memo directed to the Walt Disney Company’s regional office in Asia was shared to the media. According to the said paper, the company will soon transition to a D2C (direct-to-consumer) model, similar to what it has gone through in other parts of the world. As part of the plans, a bunch of cable channels operated by Disney will be shut by October 1, 2021.

Among the casualties of this move are the Disney Channel, Disney Junior, holdovers from the 21st Century Fox merger like Fox Channel Asia, Fox Life, Fox Movies, Fox Sports, and 11 more. Exempted from the purge will be the National Geographic Channel, Nat Geo Wild, and 2 Star Chinese channels.

Now, the question that many others have is what will happen to Disney past October 1 or in other words, its D-day (as in deadline; no puns intended)? In this feature, we’ll try to come up with several plausible ideas that might happen once that date comes.

The inevitable launch of Disney+

Unless you’re living under a rock, you might have heard Disney+ for countless times now. Launched in November 2019, the House of Mouse‘s streamer shot up in popularity amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Apart from the numerous originals like The Mandalorian, and WandaVision, Disney+ also boasts majority of Disney’s catalog of TV shows and movies from its more 100 years of existence.

Last year, Disney revealed plans during its Investor’s Day to include a ‘Star’ service for all subscribers of the Disney+. Due to Hulu, Star will be available for the entire globe, except in South America where a separate Star+ will be launched.

Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, most prominently in Singapore, Malaysia, and more recently, Thailand, Disney+ is put on top of Hotstar or what’s referred to as Disney+ Hotstar. Despite a difference in naming, D+H works in similar fashion to the main Disney+ service. However, with some originals from Hotstar are added to it.

Basing on the track of launches for the streamer in the region, it’s imperative that the Philippines will be getting a Disney+ Hotstar anytime soon. And with the October cable channels shutdown looming, it’s not going to take long before we see a glimpse of the D+ app locally.

Disney will still be on TV

“Well, yes, they still are going to be on TV because they would be shuttering all but 4 channels,” you might say. But it’s not going to be just like that, at least for this blog entry.

Again, you might think that it would be because of TV5’s broadcast of Disney Channel’s shows and the endless rotation of movies on several broadcasters. Yes, they would still be technically seen on TV because of that. But again, not only that and the first one are plausible at this point.

With TV penetration still relatively high in the Philippines versus streaming media, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Disney enters a partnership with a pay TV operator to operate a TV channel solely dedicated to their content. It would be similar to the arrangements currently being done on let’s say Sari-Sari and BuKo on Cignal TV. Also, with TV5’s existing deal with Disney, it would also be a no surprise should Cignal themselves become the partner. However, with Disney’s financial muscle, a partner should not be a problem as they can do it on their own.

With Disney being seemingly reluctant to burden themselves with a bouquet of channels, one showcase or window channel can be a welcome proposition for them. Through that specific channel, they would be able to feature vatious content that they wish to put there. Aside from helping to avoid the alienation of audiences of their existing channels, the showcase channel could also serve as an effective tool to market Disney+ to the general public.

Oh, the IPs

Disney and the acquired Fox channels hold a lot of valuable intellectual properties. From the Formula One on Fox Sports to the Miss Universe on Fox Life, saying that they merely have a bunch of it could be an undertstatement.

Despite Disney’s soon-to-be absence from the pay TV game (or we may perhaps say at some point, or so we thought), they would keep several, if not all, to lure audience as they transition to a streaming model. After all, content is king and many of those IPs that they have are incredible at doing numbers.

But, TV rights differ from streaming (at least for some parts). For the sake of argument, let’s say, they hold onto Miss Universe, given its huge fanbase in the Philippines. Disney will now have to contend with previous holder, iQiyi to bag the rights should they want to put it on Disney+.

On the other part of the spectrum, ABS-CBN, the local coveror for ages of the MU pageant, may scoop up the pay TV rights to broadcast it live on Kapamilya Channel — something that it deferred to A2Z last May. That’s only if Disney goes all out on streaming and is left without a TV outlet for such special.

So, where are we really headed?

Given the vast number of outlets that will be lost due to Disney’s pullout of their cable channels, it will be an exciting time to see whether they will cling onto all the content that they have or will some of those be seen elsewhere after October 1. Also, will the move be permanent or a retraction is bound to happen some time in the future?

Not just that, will the Philippines be finally given the greenlight for a Disney+ service before or on the same date?

But the biggest mystery of all will be this move’s long-term effect on media, especially in the Philippines. As we enter this new era in the midst of a ever-growing streaming wars, what will the future hold for cable TV, and even the entire industry in general. Are we going to see cord-cutting at the same rate as the USA? Or will we be an exception, and traditional media and other non-paying services (like YouTube and Facebook) will remain as the true kings of media in the country?

Those are only to be answered by events that will unfold beyond October 1.

Disclaimer: Several hypothetical scenarios presented must not be taken as facts on their own. Despite that, Trendrod Box wishes to remind readers that it still taken into account real-world facts to come up with the analyses it had presented.

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